Welcome to the second installment of this years Bruno Boys Fantasy Football Round Table. The Draft Edition Round Table is broken down into three segments so be sure to check back often so you don’t miss a thing! The guest columnists will be Larry Joseph, Marc Caviglia and Chris Ziza. The topics on hand that will be discussed during these segments will include : personal strategies for Draft Day preparation, a rundown of a handful of similar players and who we would rather own, moves around the NFL that could affect fantasy football as well as well as the players we feel will have a breakthrough/comeback year and the potential bust players of 2008.
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On "Who Would You Rather Own" in 2008 ?
1. RB Reggie Bush (NO) or RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC) ?
Bruno Boys Cavigs: Without even thinking twice, in a standard scoring league. I'd take Marucie Jones-Drew. Without boring you to death with a statistical analysis as to why Jones-Drew is superior to Bush, we will just breakdown their touchdown totals from the past two seasons. Jones-Drew has 24 touchdowns to Reggie Bush's 14 TD's and that right there folks is 60 more fantasy football points before you even compare total yards between the two. Plus, Jones-Drew is the main red zone threat in the Jacksonville offense, while Bush has to fend off red zone looks from the likes of Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey, Pierre Thomas, Aaron Stecker and perhaps Deuce McAllister. And for those of you who think Bush is a better yardage threat, think again, as Jones-Drew has totaled 246 more yards from scrimmage than Bush.
Bruno Boys Larry: Both players came into last season with the hopes of being second year studs and even though they put up respectable numbers, they were both slightly disappointing after nice rookie seasons. Maurice Jones-Drew, I believe is the stronger runner and has the potential to be a touchdown machine, but his touchdown total dipped to 9 in 2007 after scoring 15 total TD's in his rookie season. Bush is quicker and has great hands, catching over 160 balls his first two seasons in the league. Bush's yardage total slipped some in 2007 to just under a 1,000 total yards, but he should put up big yardage totals in the Saints high-powered offense this season. I see Bush putting up more total yards, but I will take Jones-Drew and his potential for 10+ TD's again this season, even with an aging Fred Taylor sharing time.
Bruno Boys Ziza: I would have to go with Reggie Bush. In a keeper league, I can see some people possibly going after Maurice Jones-Drew, but barring last years injury plagued year, Bush has proven to be an all-around solid RB. This year, I see him rushing more while keeping the same receiving stats. Especially in PPR (Points Per Reception) leagues I see him excelling!
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2. RB Steven Jackson (STL) or RB Joseph Addai (IND) ?
BBZ: I love both of them to death, I really do, and Joseph Addai has been a huge staple to one of my teams the past two years, but Steven Jackson would be my guy. He has the goods that can even make LaDainian Tomlinson cringe! With a healthy line, a healthy Marc Bulger and a renewed commitment to the team (once he shows up to training camp) I see nothing stopping Jackson from becoming the man that he can be. And no, that is not a groin joke…or is it?
BBC: This is a tough call, but a good problem to have. First things first, I firmly believe that both of these running backs are going to put together big seasons and will be top 5 fantasy football options at their respective positions, but if I had to choose, I'd take my chances with Steven Jackson. Last year's numbers weren't as good as planned, but Jackson did miss four games because of injury and he still totaled 1,273 yards from scrimmage. Plus, over the last 4 games he averaged a shade over 5.0 yards per carry and showed resemblance of his remarkable 2006 season. Plus, with new offensive coordinator Al Saunders on board, you better believe Jackson will be getting his touches.
BBL: Well even though I really like Joseph Addai, and I do; I think after last seasons disappointments Steven Jackson has more to prove then Addai and I think with Orlando Pace returning healthy and Jackson heading into a contract year, he could total close to 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 12-14 TD's. I might even take Jackson over Adrian Peterson at number two. Although, in my opinion, if you have the fourth or fifth pick in your draft, Addai isn't a bad consolation prize.
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3. RB Frank Gore (SF) or RB Larry Johnson (KC) ?
BBC: Both running backs failed to meet expectations in 2007 and are primed to return to full form in 2008, but believe it or not, Frank Gore is on the better offense and should post the better numbers as a dual-threat. Not only did Gore suffer from a nagging ankle injury in '07, he had to deal with an offense that averaged a league worst 13.7 points per game, which allowed defenses to scheme against Gore. With the addition of offensive coordinator Mike Martz, opposing defenses will have to scheme against the pass, which should open up holes for Gore. Even if his carries decline (which they probably will in a Martz system), you can expect an increase in his yard per carry average (4.2 ypc in '07) and there is no doubt in my mind that he sets a career high in receptions (61 receptions in '06) out of the backfield. In my opinion, Gore is the 6th best running back on the board, and is slightly ahead of Johnson (8th best RB).
BBL: Wow, you are asking the guy who just watched OC Mike Martz completely kill the running game for the Detroit Lions and the same guy who drafted LJ over LT2 in a keeper league two years ago. Yah, that didn't pan out to well either. Now I do think Frank Gore is a better runner then anyone Detroit had and Martz did well with Marshall Faulk's talent, so I give the edge to Gore here, although very close.
BBZ: I have to go with Frank Gore even though his 2007 campaign is considered to be a very disappointing year in terms of his average draft position. He still had over 1,500 combined yards and caught 53 passes and had a combined 6 TD’s. More importantly, new OC Mike Martz has fallen in love with Gore and plans on basing his whole offense around him, which could result in a career year.
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4. WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (CIN) or WR Chad Johnson (CIN) ?
BBZ: T.J. Houshmandzadeh proved last year that he could handle the job of WR1 for the Bengals, but many of those receptions came when Chad Johnson was being double teamed. This year the defenses will be more aggressive against Housh, but I still see him accruing the better stats amongst the two when the season is said and done. Johnson has too many issues, one of which is “Chad.” As I predicted last year when almost every site, including the pay sites thought that Chad would be the man, I said go with Housh! This year is no different!
BBL: It seems while Chad Johnson is busy hyping himself up, T.J Houshmandzadeh is building a nice rapport with QB Carson Palmer. Even though Johnson had more yards (1,440 to 1,143) I think Housh. is more consistent and will help your team more on a weekly basis. Johnson tends to have great games sandwiched in between bad games. I would rather have Housh and his consistent points.
BBC: To be honest with you, I'm sick and tired of Chad Johnson and everything that he represents in a football player. I used to think his antics led to good comedy and helped the NFL stand out amongst professional sports, but his constant "I can do what I want, when I want" personality has made me mad. Plus, his inconsistency on the football field, doesn't help his fantasy football owners. He totaled the majority of his fantasy points in three games (82 points combined in 3 games) and 7 of his eight touchdowns came in those same games. With that being said, I am leaning toward T.J Houshmandzadeh, as he emerged as a more consistent option in Cincinnati and was a bigger red zone target than Johnson. Keep in mind, he started off the '07 season with a touchdown and double-digit fantasy points in each of the Bengals first 8 games.
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5. WR Reggie Wayne (IND) or WR Randy Moss (NE) ?
BBZ: Both are stud WR’s that can be listed as 1A and 1B, but whom is which? A few things stand out to me for this year. One is that Randy Moss has the healthy quarterback in Tom Brady. Peyton Manning had off-season surgery which he is still recovering from. Secondly, Moss has the better yards per catch average throughout his career. Better yardage, healthier QB, you have to go with Moss over Reggie Wayne.
BBC: I snagged Randy Moss in the 5th round of a big time money league last year and he rode me to a championship. This won't be the case this year, as Moss is now the elite wide receiver and rightfully so. Like Tom Brady, Moss can see a significant decline in his production and still be a top fantasy football option. He can have a 25 percent decline in statistics and still have 17 touchdown receptions. Reggie Wayne gets better each year and I don't think he has capped his potential, but you'd have to have big balls to snag him over Moss.
BBL: Until I see otherwise I am sticking with Tom Brady and Randy Moss. Even though Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne are very good, come on did you see Brady to Moss last year? Moss will continue to score many touchdowns (though it won't be the 23 he had last year) and is back a top the receiver ranks in 2008.
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6. WR Greg Jennings (GB) or WR Marques Colston (NO) ?
BBL: As fantasy football fanatics we are always looking for the next great third year receiver. Both players come from smaller schools (Hofstra and Western Michigan) and are nice stories. Jennings had a good year (920 yds, 12 TD's), but who knows if it is going to be Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. Drew Brees and Colston are heading into their third year together and Colston is poised to continue his rise to elite receiver status in year three.
BBZ: Both are highly touted, young WR’s that have the skills to pay the bills. Unfortunately they don’t have the same opportunities. Marques Colston is his team’s primary WR and has a very solid QB in Drew Brees behind him. The other has Donald Driver to contend with. When it is all is said and done, even if Favre does play in Green Bay, I still like Colston’s chances better; Bum knee or not.
BBC: Marques Colston in a landslide if you ask me. Greg Jennings did have a breakout season in 2007, and Brett Favre is returning to Green Bay, but Colston has developed into a top 10 fantasy football wide receiver. Last year, he improved on his impressive rookie season, caught 98 passes and hauled in 11 touchdown receptions, and I think he can be even better in 2008. With Jeremy Shockey coming to the "Big Easy", teams will have to scheme against him and Colston can see more single coverage. As for Jennings, he is a bit undervalued this year in terms of what he did last year, but don't expect 22 percent of his receptions to go for touchdowns again in 2008.
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7. QB Tom Brady (NE) or QB Peyton Manning (IND) ?
BBL: Either one of these guys could be my franchise QB, but even if Brady drops a little after last years 4,800 yards, 50 TD's, 8 INT's, and Manning improves on last years 4,000 yards, 31 TD's, 14 INT's. Tom Brady still has a better year. Plus did you see Brady and Company last year? 50 TD's!
BBC: How can you not go with Tom Brady in this situation. I know Peyton Manning has been the more consistent option throughout his career, but Brady had the best season ever for an NFL quarterback in 2007, and outside of the loss of Donte' Stallworth, he returns all of the key components that helped him achieve history. Even if Brady sees a 20 percent dip in his production, he still totals 3,845 passing yards and 40 TD's. Those numbers are more than enough to keep him as the top fantasy football quarterback heading into 2008.
BBZ: Tom Brady had a great year in 2007 and Peyton Manning had a record breaking season in 2004 and has hovered around 30 TD’s throughout his entire historic career. Manning is ailing at the moment, recovering form off-season surgery, but my vote still goes with him. He has the all-around better supporting cast and with his brains, even a hurt Manning can pass for 4,000 and 25+ TD’s. When it comes to quarterback play, there is no one more consistent than Sir Peyton, and I just don't see Brady doubling his second highest career TD total two years in a row!
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8. QB Carson Palmer (CIN) or QB Drew Brees (NO) ?
BBC: In alot of ways, both Drew Brees and Carson Palmer are similar. They both throw alot of touchdown passes, but combine that with equally high interception totals. In defense, Brees and Palmer chuck the football more than the majority of the quarterbacks in the league, so they are prone to turnovers. When projecting the two signal callers, I see their stats to be comparable, but if I was forced to make a decision on draft day, it would be Brees. Marques Colston is a big time threat, Reggie Bush makes it easy for Brees to check down when getting pressures and now they have a proven tight end in Jeremy Shockey. Both quarterbacks have the weapons to put up career numbers, and should be targeted in the 4th and 5th rounds of your drafts (increase value in 6-points per passing TD leagues).
BBZ: If Carson Palmer was in New Orleans he would be the QB of choice; but he is stuck in Cincinnati. Drew Brees is the QB on hand and has had back to back seasons in which he has thrown for at least 4,400 yards, averaged 27 thrown TD’s and has had fewer INT”s than Palmer the past few years. Now you throw in a healthy Reggie Bush and toss in TE Jeremy Shockey and you have a very improved Saints offense. I would be shocked to see Brees finish the season with stats that does not rival or exceed Palmer’s.
BBL: Both teams have high powered offenses and last year’s numbers were very close. They are ranked 4 and 5 in the Bruno Boys Rankings and they are both Tier Two Quarterbacks. I will give the edge to Drew Brees, based on the new edition of Jeremy Shockey.
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9. QB Marc Bulger (STL) or QB Derek Anderson (CLE) ?
BBC: Both quarterbacks head into 2008 with questions surrounding their ability to perform. Derek Anderson was putrid down the stretch for the Cleveland Browns and he played a large role in them choking to make the post season. On the other hand, Marc Bulger played hurt, but was far from productive when he was on the field; as evident by his 11 touchdown passes to 15 interceptions. However, when I snag a quarterback I want a guy who has proven himself in the league, and Bulger has done just that. Injuries aside, when healthy he can get the job done, and we have to remember just a two years ago he tossed 24 touchdown passes to go along with 4,301 passing yards. Plus, a bad start for Anderson (opens the season with Dallas, Pittsburgh and Baltimore) could lead to the Brady Quinn chants early on in Cleveland.
BBL: I will give the edge to Derek Anderson. I bought into what he did last year big time. I think he helped the careers of Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow and will continue to do so. I think Marc Bulger will also have a fine year, but I think he has to prove he can stay healthy before he skyrockets up my quarterback rankings.
BBZ: Derek Anderson had a heck of a year last year, but he came crashing down once defenses figured him out. Marc Bulger should have a bounce back year this season as long as everyone stays healthy, especially Torrey Holt, Steven Jackson and Orlando Pace. If those three have healthy years the sky could be the limit for Bulger as far as him having a career season goes. Health has always been a problem for him though as he has had only one season in which he has played in all sixteen games. So you will definitely want to back him up on your team with a solid QB for the weeks that he most assuredly will be out of the lineup. A return to a top-8 or so fantasy QB definitely is not out of the question!
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10. TE Jason Witten (DAL) or TE Antonio Gates (SD) ?
BBL: These may be the two premier tight ends in the league. Both are top tier guys and the top two ranked TE’s by the Bruno Boys. Based on the fact that Antonio Gates is coming off foot surgery I will take Jason Witten. He played a big role in a high powered offense last year, and we should expect alot of the same in 2008.
BBZ: Antonio Gates, when healthy is the most talented TE in the league. Jason Witten on the other hand had a career year, or at least what possibly was a career year for him, but he still could get even better this year. Rumor has it that he will be working more at the WR2 position on the Cowboys and if he does, as such his value will definitely go up in fantasy football land. With all that being said, I am thinking about championships, not who will get out of the gate the fastest. If given opportune time to heal, I would, without a doubt, have no problem drafting Gates as my TE1, planning on him perhaps missing the first 6 weeks of the season, although that is highly unlikely, and just plug in a suitable backup at that time. All of Gates’ career stats prove that he can rack up the TD’s, yardage and such. Witten has never had more than 7 TD’s.
BBC: I'm winded guys, so lets keep this one short and sweet. You can't go wrong with either guy, but what scares me about Antonio Gates is his nagging injuries. Plus, he said he will not participate in game activity until he is healthy enough to play at full speed. These guys are about even when projecting their 2008 statistics, so why not take the healthy tight end in an offense whose starting quarterback had 60 more pass attempts than the other one. Jason Witten is my choice!
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11. TE Jeremy Shockey (NO) or TE Kellen Winslow (CLE) ?
BBZ: Even though Kellen Winslow started out his career on the worst note possible, playing in only 2 games his first two years, he has played in all 32 since! He is averaging almost 1000 yards and 4 TD’s during those two seasons, and the best part about him is that he is not nearly satisfied! He wants to increase his numbers in every category across the board. Shockey has never come close to Winslow’s yardage stats. This isn’t even a hard decision if you ask me.
BBL: This is a much better question after the Jeremy Shockey trade to New Orleans Saint. Both these offenses will be relying heavily on the tight end., but I would give the edge to Kellen Winslow, based on already having played one year with Derek Anderson.
BBC: Jeremy Shockey has excelled in a Sean Payton offense in the past. When Shockey won the Rookie of the Year award as a member of the New York Giants, Payton was the offensive coordinator. Ironically, that was the years Shockey posted his best offensive statistics, and I have a feeling we see a huge spike in his touchdown receptions from years past. However, I still think Kellen Winslow is the choice between the two. He posted wide receiver like statistics from the tight end position, was a lock to get you at least 5 fantasy football points on a weekly basis and should continue to improve in an offense that feeds off his desire to succeed.
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12. DST Chicago Bears or DST New England Patriots ?
BBZ: I must go with the New England Patriots all the way here. I wrote a Crystal Ball article on both of these DST's actually (will be posted later). The Chicago Bears I predicted will be a disappointment this year, the Patriots, however, I feel that you will be able to get them at a favorable draft position and that they should be able to produce as a top five team defense this year! As a unit they combined for 798 solo tackles, 257 assisted tackles, 47 sacks, 18 fumble recoveries, 19 interceptions and 3 touchdowns last season and I fully expect that the points allowed that really hurt this club should be cut down at least some. With better clock control and a better running game, that can only help out the Patriots defensive unit.
BBC: In my opinion it's a matter of consistency vs. Jekyll & Hyde. The New England Patriots being the consistent of the group, as you know what you are going to get from them on a weekly basis. They aren't going to do anything super flashy, but they will be able to contain opponents, force turnovers and capitalize on opponents mistakes. They will be the steady group that doesn't make mistakes and flirt with double-digit fantasy points on a weekly basis. As for the Chicago Bears, they will be up and down throughout the season. Often times they rely on Devin Hester to bring a kick/punt return to the house, and if he doesn't you might be flirting with a disastrous week from the Bears. Both will be good, but the Patriots will be better, so that's my choice.
BBL: Although I love what Devin Hester brings to the table for the Chicago Bears, I think that after New England went 18-0 and lost in the Super Bowl, this defense will be focused to be at least as good as last year and they were better then people give them credit for. I'll take the Patriots and their soft AFC East schedule.
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13. DST San Diego Chargers or DST Minnesota Vikings ?
BBL: The Minnesota Vikings were a big surprise last season and are expected to be even better with the addition of sack machine Jared Allen, but the San Diego Chargers with the likes of Shawn Merriman, Clinton Hart and Antonio Cromartie earn the Bruno Boys number one ranking and I agree.
BBC: Give me the San Diego Chargers and their fearsome defense that is stacked with Pro-Bowlers at every position. I agree with Bruno Boys Larry that the Vikings surprised in 2007, and I feel that their revamped front four led by sack master Jared Allen will continue to excel, but the Chargers have too much firepower and it helps that they get to play the Oakland Raiders twice, the Kansas City Chiefs twice, the Miami Dolphins once, the Atlanta Falcons, and they get the Denver Broncos while Brandon Marshall is serving his suspension.
BBZ: Individually, I just feel that the San Diego Chargers have the superior defensive stars on their team. Minnesota was a great surprise last year, but their D could come crashing back a little to reality. San Diego, on the other hand, has been respected as a defensive play the past couple of seasons and I expect nothing to be different this year. While both clubs should be a top DST1, it is the Chargers, not Minnesota, that I see helping you out more this year.
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14. K Nick Folk (DAL) or K Adam Vinatieri (IND) ?
BBZ: Both play for highly powered offensive teams, one is a sophomore while the other is an aging veteran. But only one made all 14 FG attempts from the 30-49 yard tries last year, and he is the person that also had more XP attempts, completing 100% of them! And that folks, not to be coy, is Nick Folk! Entering his second season in Dallas he should continue where he left off from last year. Although no one would complain to have Adam Vinatieri on their team, you would be better off with the young gun!
BBL: They are two of the top kickers in the league. You really can’t go wrong either way. Both are accurate kickers that play for high-powered offenses. I will take the younger Nick Folk.
BBC: Both of these kickers have great value, as they play on high powered offenses and should be kicking numerous Extra Points in 2008, but in my opinion, Nick Folk has alot more value than Adam Vinatieri. Folk kicked nine field goals over 40 yards in '07, while Vinatieri failed to convert on a field goal over 40 yards. That right there my friends is the deciding factor when it comes to picking your place kicker, take the guy with the bigger leg as in most leagues longer field goals mean more fantasy football points.
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Other Bruno Boys Roundtable Discussion (click to read)
Bruno Boys Roundtable - Draft Day Edition (Part 1)
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