Recently, at my Fantasy Football Librarian website, I’ve been chatting with some glum readers – readers who are morose over the recent financial upheaval and 
those who are concerned about a far more important and life-changing event: top running backs who aren’t living up to expectations. These readers have been relying upon a Joseph Addai/Maurice Jones-Drew double punch at RB this season and are riled up over their shoddy records so far. Can you blame them? They’re staring a serious fantasy football blowup in the face unless something changes and are feeling some big-time anxiety – trust me, I’m an expert on this since I’m 0-5 in one of my leagues. Yes, 0-5 and I’m here giving you advice; funny, huh?
So I’ve been wondering how many of the current top running backs are here to stay. To get a little perspective I took a look the top 10 RBs from last year at this time (heading into Week 6) to see just how many of them ended up in the top 10 at the end of the season.
------------------
Based on Fantasy Football Today's default scoring, here were the Top 10 from one year ago:
1. Ronnie Brown
2. Joseph Addai
3. Marion Barber
4. LaDainian Tomlinson
5. Brian Westbrook
6. Edgerrin James
7. LaMont Jordan
8. Adrian Peterson
9. Willis McGahee
10. Derrick Ward
And the Final Top 10 at the end of the 2007 season:
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Brian Westbrook
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Joseph Addai
5. Clinton Portis
6. Jamal Lewis
7. Marion Barber
8. Willis McGahee
9. Frank Gore
10. Edgerrin James
Now 7 of the 10 RBs at Week 5 made it to the top 10 RBs overall by the end of the season. Who will those 7 players be this year? Granted, that’s just one year and given more time I might take a look and see historically just how many of the top guys are obvious at Week 5, but this week I thought I’d pull out the 3 running backs that are in the top 10 right now that I don’t think will last for the season.
First, here’s the list of Top 10 Running Backs through the seasons first 5 weeks:
1. Michael Turner
2. Frank Gore
3. Clinton Portis
4. Marion Barber
5. Matt Forte
6. Reggie Bush
7. Ronnie Brown
8. Adrian Peterson
9. Marshawn Lynch
10. Brian Westbrook
Here’s my list players who aren’t going to be in the elite fantasy football Running Back list come January:
Marion Barber (Dallas Cowboys) – With Felix Jones breathing down his neck and a tough schedule in the NFC East (in addition to facing strong run defenses from TB, Pittsburgh and Baltimore), it certainly makes me doubt whether or not Barber can maintain his current status. At season’s end I think he’ll end up in the top 20, maybe even top 15 RBs, but I strongly doubt that he’ll remain as high as he is now, especially when he’s only putting up 84 yards on 23 carries against Cincinnati.
Reggie Bush (New Orleans Saints) – Thank goodness this dude can catch. And return touchdowns. When I saw him in person at the Broncos v. Saints game, I was impressed by how omnipresent he was on the field. And if you’re in a PPR league, Bush has great value…but he just isn’t running at the level that it takes to be a season-long top 10 RB and I argue that he isn’t going to last in this list. Over the past five weeks he has rushed for 51 yards or less every week except against my um, weak Broncos run D (he ran for 73 yards then) in Week 3. He has some tough matchups (Carolina, TB and Chicago) interspersed with some sweet matchups (KC and Detroit) for the rest of the season so I see him oscillating quite a bit and ultimately end up outside of this top 10 list, somewhere around 17th or 18th best RB.
Brian Westbrook (Philadelphia Eagles) – I heart Westbrook. He’s a beast and he’s unstoppable…until he’s hit by both fractured ribs and an ankle injury in the span of two weeks. I think this might be the beginning of the end for Westbrook. I love the guy but he’s no spring chicken and these injuries will take their toll on him. Westbrook will run in TDs and put up decent numbers when he plays, but I think he’s likely to be a serious injury case with lots of game-time decisions and “Westbrook Light” games for the rest of the year.
--------------------
Past "A Librarians Touch" Articles (click to view)
Best & Worst of 2008
Week 17 Sneaky Fantasy Football Options
Championship Week Defenses
Finding the Week 15 Gem
Revisiting the Top 10 Running Backs
Taking It One Week At A Time
Predicting Playoff Studs
Second Half Players to Avoid
Second Half Handcuffs
Finding the Week 8 Bye Week Fill-In
Which Top 10 Running Backs will remain strong in 2008?
Shop Em, Don't Drop Em
Bye-ing into a Team D/ST
Forecasting Streaky Players
Fantasy Football Hindsight from Week 1
Hidden Potential Among Rookies
Fantasy Football Draft Day Trends
Creating Fantasy Football Tiers
Pick your Kicker with some Statistical Perspective
Optimizing Your Tight End
Beyond the Obvious with IDP's
Committing to a Running Back Committee
------------------
Sara Holladay, owner of Fantasy Football Librarian, will be writing a weekly feature called "A Librarians Touch" on the Bruno Boys website on every Wednesday throughout the football season. Remember to check back next week to read what Holladay has on her fantasy football mind.
----------------
::Questions? Comments? How about you SIGN UP for an account and leave a comment. Plus, by signing up you can MANAGE ALL of your FANTASY FOOTBALL teams from ONE ACCOUNT.::