What Went Right
You cannot mention the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks without mentioning their first place finish in the National League West.
If you are not an avid D-backs fan, you could not have seen this coming yet the mixture of solid bullpen/starting pitching and timely hitting were a major reason why this team seemed to shoot up from obscurity to the National League Championship Series.
Brandon Webb demonstrated why he brought home the Cy Young award in ’06 by stringing together 42 scoreless innings including three complete game shutouts. Webb finished fourth in the National League in ERA, posting an impressive 2.63. Not bad for the 28-year old especially considering that at one time his record was 8-8.
Fantasy phenom, centerfielder Chris Young made many Diamondbacks and fantasy managers happy with his first full season. Chris put some stellar statistics, hitting 32 homers, 85 runs, and knocking in 68 base runners. His average was not all that you want from one of your most promising young talents in the organization (.238 BA) however, the pop at the plate and his playmaking abilities on the field make him a great story for the ’07 Diamondbacks.
When reviewing what made this organization so good, I had to turn to the impressive effort of their bullpen. Had it not been for them, this team would not have gotten as far as they did. Led by closer Jose Valverde (47 saves) who finally lived up to expectations, this mixed group of veterans and youth posted some impressive ERAs. With three sub-2 ERAS (Brandon Lyon, Doug Slatton, and Valverde) and two sub-3 ERAs (Tony Pena, and Juan Cruz), this group of relievers appears to be one of the foundations of this organization.
What Went Wrong
Chad Tracy has had yet another disappointing season, whether it is on the field, at the plate, or on your fantasy roster. In 2005, Chad posted 73 runs, 73 RBIs, and 27 homeruns with a batting average of .308 leading many to believe that he was clearly going to be the big bat in the lineup. In 2006, he dropped in all statistical categories except for runs (98) and was only able to play 78 games in ’07 before sustaining a season-ending knee injury.
The team had many issues, the primary issue coming in the run department. As is with all teams in the transition from veterans to youth, the Diamondbacks suffered in it’s run production. This is never more evident than simply looking at the majority of the starting lineup’s batting averages: Chris Young (.238), Stephen Drew (.259), Justin Upton (.221), Eric Byrnes (.267), and Chris Snyder (.238).
Although Conor Jackson posted 32 homers and a .284 batting average, the statistics that show that he did not live up to the “hype” is demonstrated in his runs and runs batted in. Conor got off to a significantly slow start, posting 56 runs and 60 RBI. This is extremely poor for a clean-up hitter. If this team is to progress, it is going to have to rely on Conor to increase his plate presence and consistency.
The Moves They Made
The biggest blunder of the Diamondbacks organization in 2007 was trying to bring back ticket holders by trading away young talent for an aging pitcher who is in the twilight of his career. Randy Johnson has done nothing in his second stint with the Diamondbacks besides soak up payroll. They gave up INF Alberto Gonzalez who has shot up the Yankee’s farm system and RHP Luiz Vizcaino who demonstrated his abilities late in the season, essentially assuring himself a spot on the 2008 Yankee roster.
They did, however, make some smart moves for the organizations future by calling up the young talent in their minor league system.
With only 43 games, Justin Upton has shown that he is just about ready to step to the plate in the big leagues and follow in his older brother, Tampa Bay 2B B.J. Upton’s footsteps. With the first overall pick in 2005, Justin has some large shoes to fill and his .221 BA is a long way off from where it needs to be.
Additionally, 3B Mark Reynolds demonstrated reasons why he belongs in the majors by supplementing the offense with 17 HRs and produced more runs (62) and RBI (62) then the clean-up hitter, Conor Jackson, all in only 111 games.
With all that being said, if you actually visited their website and reviewed their transactions over the calendar year, you would be convinced that they are slightly schizophrenic in their thinking. They brought up and demoted players so many times that it looked like they were really pulling at straws to get a solid line-up. An example would be claiming RHP Byung-Hyun Kim off waivers on August 3, 2007 only to release him on the 22nd (Why they picked him up in the first place is beyond comprehension). Then there is the call-up and send-downs a half a dozen times of OF prospect Carlos Quentin.
One of the smartest moves was signing veteran Bob Wickman late in the season, not only because he is more than capable of being a great setup man but also because this bullpen needed some veteran leadership to the youth in the bullpen.
The Moves They Didn’t Make (But Should Have)
I believe that while they may have saved some money by going to arbitration with Orlando Hudson, they may have lost this gold glove second baseman long term. For a player like Hudson who has shown great field presence, the best plate presence in the organization, and the ever-growing pop at the plate, it seems a deep shame that they did not award Hudson with a long-term deal but instead opted for an extended contract with Randy Johnson instead. Was Randy Johnson worth potentially losing a young, talented, gold glove second baseman?
With the plethora of youth in the outfield, it may not have made sense to some, but there was an opportunity to sign Trot Nixon. Trot, a career .275 hitter with his “dirt dog” mentality had a hunger to get out there and prove himself outside of Sox Nation. Add the experience of a World Series and better than average power (20+ HR Avg.) and you have a player that could have contributed both on and off the field. It would not have hurt that GM Josh Burns knows Trot personally, either.
Where Now?
The Diamondbacks are not sitting on their 2007 roster and hoping things will just turnaround on its own. Instead, they have all ready started to retool their line-up all around.
With the recent trade for RHP Billy Buckner (no, not the 1986 World Series blundering 1B) and RHP Chad Qualls from Houston, they have bolstered there all ready sturdy bullpen. Unfortunately they did trade away their anchor, Jose Valverde to the Houston Astros.
In the trade for Valverde, they did find a great utility player in 2B/OF Chris Burke who had an impressive season in ’07.
One of the biggest moves of the off-season went Arizona’s way. The organization traded away 6 minor league prospects for outstanding starting pitcher Dan Haren. With the one-two punch of Webb and Haren, the D-backs have vaulted themselves into serious playoff contention before the season even begins.
With the addition of Chris Burke and three capable outfielders (Eric Byrnes, Chris Young, Justin Upton), oft-injured Carlos Quentin became expendable. With that, the organization traded him to the Chicago White Sox for INF Chris Carter. I believe that they could have gotten more but Chris Carter is a player that fits well into the National League approach to roster depth.
There is still a lot to do in the off-season for the organization. They need to work on a long-term deal for Orlando Hudson as Augie Ojeda is great utility infielder but not the answer the D-backs need on their offense to start. The team is desperate for the return of Chad Tracy and his 2005 production (Hopefully they get both). They need to determine who will be their closer in ’08. They will need to work quickly in spring training to decide whether or not Micah Owings is going to grow into the third starter they need him to be or if they are going to dip into their minor league rosters or seek the free agency pool or trade.
Fantasy Corner
Three Keepers
- Brandon Webb – He has shown that he is a “Top 5” fantasy pitcher. He will in no doubt continue this trend especially now that he is towing the line himself.
- Dan Haren – Take a premier American League pitcher with 15 wins, 159 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.07 and send him to a league that does not have a designated hitter. Can you say “Career Year”.
- Chris Young – There is no doubt that this kid is going to have a significant year as he approaches his second full season. Expect 30+ HRS, 90+ Runs & RBI.
Three Sleepers
- Conor Jackson – Conor’s slow 2007 start can be your gain in 2008. Jackson is capable of 40-100-100. The question is whether there are base runners around him.
- Mark Reynolds – Here is a literal “sleeper”. No one will think of him come draft day as he played in 111 games but didn’t really stand out…but he will! This kid posted a .279 BA and knocked in 17 HRS in 111 games. At this pace, he should put up close to 25 HRS, 80 Runs, and 80 RBI. When it comes to sleepers, Mark is a player that you can sneak on your roster on the late rounds and give you points consistently.
- Micah Owings – Although his name has been thrown around quite a bit at the end of the season, especially in keeper leagues, he is a player that will not show up on many Top 50 pitchers, giving you a great chance to snag him in the later rounds of the draft. With an 8 – 8 record and an ERA of 4.30, many players will turn to the Doug Davis before they turn to Micah.