Fantasy playoff season is approaching, and owners are worried. What can they expect from the reliever-turned-starter for the rest of the season? What happened to the Uptons and the Youngs? Where did their Ranger go? At least one thing never seems to change: Roy Halladay or C.C. Sabathia will complete a game for you. Served fresh off the grill, your Fantasy Minute for the week:
1. Relievers can be starters, but can they last? There can be a lot of concern about whether a reliever can be converted into a starter. Obviously, if someone is a reliever for only a month or two, then there are no worries. However, if a pitcher has been a reliever for more than half a year, some wonder whether the sudden conversion to starter takes its toll. The prime example, of course, is Joba Chamberlain, whose conversion was met with plenty of skepticism (even though he had always been a starter, until May of last year). Chamberlain silenced the critics quickly, as he became a dominant starter. However, because the routines are so different, one has to worry about such converters' long-term durability. This year, we have seen three converters break down: Chamberlain, Justin Duchscherer, and Brett Myers. Duchscherer has a hip problem, while Myers seemed to lose a lot of speed off his fastball and was even sent to the minors to work out his problems. This is not to say that you should avoid these converters, because all three have obviously been valuable at various points this season, but be careful when they hit that 100-150 inning mark. At that point, you may want to consider selling high.
2. The struggles of the Uptons. At the time of the preseason fantasy draft, the Uptons were flying high. B.J. was selected in the second or third round of many drafts as a result of his breakout 2007 season, especially since he qualified for both 2B and OF. B.J. was the classic, all-around fantasy star, someone who could hit for average, power, and steal bases. Justin, meanwhile, was considered the B.J. Upton of 2008, someone who would break out and realize his enormous potential. Well, this is why they play the game. Though B.J. has provided some value with his stolen bases (36), his other numbers are way down (.267/8/57), and he has now been benched several times for lack of hustle. After a red-hot start, Justin cooled down considerably, seeing his AVG dip to .242, and sinking to a .123 AVG with only one HR in 23 games in June. Then, in early June, Justin strained his oblique, and he has not returned since. It may be too late for either to salvage their seasons and the hopes of the fantasy owners who drafted them, but don't be surprised if they at least come on strong in September.
3. Compare to the Youngs. The Youngs, meanwhile, weren't on many people's radar. Dmitri was
coming off a fine 2007 season, but expected to ride the pine with Nick
Johnson's return. Delmon, meanwhile, was someone who the Tampa Rays
felt was expendable, and he ended up going to Minnesota. His 127:26
K:BB ratio concerned many, and some thought he might be susceptible to
a disappointing year. Dmitri got some playing time as a result of Nick Johnson's inevitable injury problems, but his weight problems have taken their toll, and now Young is out for the season with complications from diabetes. Delmon might be the one bright spot amongst these four brothers. Though his power has not improved much, Young has shown real improvement in his plate discipline (73:26 K:BB ratio as of this writing), and he has been more aggressive on the basepaths. Though his RBI rate is down, his run-scoring rate is way up. If Delmon continues to show this kind of improvement, he becomes a very intriguing draft pick next year, and even a possible keeper in keeper leagues.
4. Woe are the Rangers. After the All-Star break, the Rangers were the "it" team. Fresh off Josh Hamilton's otherworldly performance at the Home Run Derby, the Rangers boasted one of the best 3-4 punches with Hamilton and Milton Bradley, a return to form by Michael Young, and a breakout year by Ian Kinsler. The Rangers were also getting big production from a couple of youngsters, David Murphy and Chris Davis. August, however, has not been so kind to the Rangers. Young has cooled off considerably since the break, hitting only .243 with a .360 SLG. Bradley has been sidelined with a variety of maladies and has had only 53 ABs since the All-Star break. Although Hamilton has continued to hit well, his production rate has dipped considerably as a result of his lower AVG (.310 pre, .279 post) and the struggles of his teammates. Murphy has continued to surprise, but Davis has struggled badly since pitchers began to figure out the holes in his swing. The worst loss of all, however, is Kinsler, who is now likely out for the season. Kinsler broke out to become one of the best 2B in the league, ranking among the league leaders in AVG, SB, and R, but a sports hernia will keep him out for the year. That especially hurts Kinsler, Young, and Hamilton owners who depended on Kinsler as a tablesetter for the Rangers lineup.
5. C.C. and Roy watch. Another start, another complete game for C.C. Sabathia. In case you lost count, that's eight for Sabathia, tying Roy Halladay for most in the league. This game wasn't as easy for Sabathia, as he gave up 11 hits and three runs, and needed 130 pitches to do it, but at this point, a team could probably alternate Sabathia and Halladay every day, and they would shut down opposing hitters. It would certainly be something if, this year, we saw two pitchers break the double-digit complete-game barrier, particularly when you consider that nobody has had more than nine CGs since Randy Johnson had 12 in 1999.