I am giving all of you readers a full blown out look at my 2008 season picks, which also includes one big Excel spreadsheet to look at.  This article also compares data from previous seasons to see if any trend does exist. The added spreadsheet includes some trends that could even be used for the 2009 season.

The included .zip file includes both the Excel spreadsheet and a copy of this article.

Here are my stats from the Yahoo.com Auto Racing '08 fantasy game.

First half: Rank of 201,444 with total points of 4,252
Second Half: Rank of 44,804 with total points of 4,489
Full season:  Rank of 111,213 with total points of 9,101

That data shows that I had a bad start to the season with a much more solid finish to the year ... even if the points racked up are close.  The Excel spreadsheet shows the same thing, but in way better detail.

The included Excel spreadsheet has:

• Color coded driver names.
• All start and finish data for each driver for every race used in the fantasy game.
• Macros to calculate some data.
• Every single pick I made.
• Legend explaining some of my calculations.
• Lots of extra calculated data.
• OVER 5000 cells with data in it.

A first look at the spreadsheet showcases a wild swing at the start of the season in the amount of A list, B list, and C list drivers I used.  Over the start of the season I was coming up a standard amount of picks that was 2 A list drivers, 3 B list drivers, and 2 C list drivers.  

A grand total of 71 drivers started at least one race this season, but:

• Only 11 drivers won a race
• Only 28 drivers scored a top 5
• Only 36 drivers score a top 10
• Only 15 drivers scored a poll

Comparing winners and poll data over the past few years:

Comparing winner's data over the past few years:

2008 - 11
2007 - 15
2006 - 14
2005 - 15
2004 - 13
2003 - 17

I say the 2008 data is lower than usual and that the COT has some roll in this along with being on a better-funded team as well.

Comparing poll winners data over the past few years

2008 - 15
2007 - 18
2006 - 15
2005 - 17
2004 - 12
2003 - 15

Comparing 2008 data with previous years yields nothing.  Around the same amount of drivers winning the poll each year.

A look at the winners starting average data:

Winners starting average over past few years.

2008 - 8
2007 - 11.83
2006 - 8.47
2005 - 10
2004 - 10.89
2003 - 8.97

The 2008 data is the lowest of the bunch, but not too far out of the way from normal levels.

Winners from the poll over the past few years

2008 - 9
2007 - 4
2006 - 6
2005 - 4
2004 - 4
2003 - 5

The 2008 data is higher than normal over the past few years, using nothing but COT car could have something to do with it.  A few of these wins had no qualifying which could have also been a factor.

A list drivers with 22 wins did have the edge this year over the B list drivers with 14 wins this year.  The B list group only got really hot one part of the year while the A list drivers got hot in three other parts of the season.

No C list driver was able to win a race this year, but Brian Vickers at Pocono in race 14 finished in second place and Marcos Ambrose in race 22 finished third at Watkins Glen.  I did pick both of them though.

Over the past year I gave you 253 picks and almost 40% of them wound up being in the top ten.  Not bad, but we know we can be better.  Between the first half and second half of the year I was able to double the amount of winners which was really great.

First half average of total drivers picked: 18.62

Second half average of total drivers picked: 16.94

That is a massive improvement

The first half had the best week that was week 2 and the worst week that was week 5.

The first half had 9 days over a 20 average, the second half had only 5.

Only 2 weeks had an average under 11.

If we look at just the percentage of drivers making the top three fantasy for their list I made some good gains as well from the first half to the half.

Jimmie Johnson won the championship this year with an 11.03 average while Carl Edwards was the lone driver to have an average under 10.0 with a 9.5 average.

Best average finish over the past few years by season:

2008 - 9.5 - Carl Edwards
2007 - 7.3 - Jeff Gordon
2006 - 9.7 - Jimmie Johnson
2005 - 9.9 - Tony Stewart
2004 - 11.4 - Jeff Gordon
2003 - 10.2 - Matt Kenseth

The 2008 data is in range so nothing special there.  Only in 2006 did we have two drivers under a 10.0 average for a full season of racing.  The chase does have an effect on who has the best average finish though.  In 2008, 2007 and 2004 the driver with the best average finish did not win the championship.

Qualifying data calculated only looked at the drivers who qualified in the top four since they got bonus points.

Almost 56% of those drivers made a top ten finish.  I would say that is really good.

Around 42% of those drivers made into the fantasy top three for the list they were in.  Not above 50%, but still solid data.

If we go back just one year around 48.5% of the drivers qualifying in the top 4 made it into the top 10.  I would say that is much lower than last year and could mean that getting used to the COT car is to blame.

This is it from me until January where I will have up some pre-season articles.