It's the halfway point in the Fall Series, and there is moving and
shaking happening all over the top-125 on the Money List. Players are
coming back into the Fall Series to try to cherrypick a win; others are leaving
because they've secured their cards - while the rest are in an all-out
war. And this week, at TPC Summerlin, we've got ourselves a long course
(7,243 yds) with few trees and fewer challenges. This course ranked 44th
out of 55 on Tour last season, and this year should prove to be no different.
Expect big hitters to have an easy time of things this week; and it will give
chances (in some cases, final chances) to some golfers in the field that
normally be excluded due to technicality or tough greens. That will make
picking winners tough, but that's why you've got me. Here we go, this
week's Start 'Em Sit 'Em:
Start
Jeff Overton - He's got three top-10s as part of his five top-25s
this season, and has had what you can classify as a decent season to this
point. He's won $780,434 on the season, and as you'd imagine, that's
pretty close to the Money List "cut line". You'd be right, as
he currently sits in 120th. However, this course seems tailor-made for
Overton. The vast expanse without a lot of clutter should be a tempting
target for Overton to "grip it and rip it". He's 29th in
Driving Distance at about 296 yds/drive; which should be more than
enough. You can virtually (not completely, but virtually) ignore his
190th in Driving Accuracy and his 113th in Greens In Regulation. That
should be true due to the huge greens and wide fairways (it only stands to
reason). His putting isn't great, but it should be more than good enough
(78th in Putting Average, 95th in Putts Per Round) this week to compete, and
get his season-clinching top-5 finish.
Robert Garrigus - I fully expect Garrigus to build on his T-3rd last
week, and do something pretty similar this week. This season he's got
four top-25s, including last week's T-3rd. He's made 14 of 25 cuts, and
has won $571,702. That's 139th on the Money List, and considering that
the winner's share this week is about $740,000; and that this might be his last
best chance to keep his card, I'd expect a strong finish from him this
week. Why? He is 3rd on Tour in Driving Distance at 310+ yds/drive.
In addition, he's also 31st in Greens In Regulation. To me, that should
be enough to compete this week, and it's appropriate to almost ignore his 187th
in Driving Distance, 165th in Putting Average and 169th in Putts Per
Round. If he can pick up shots with his length, and knock it on the green
from there without the hindrance of those pesky trees; this should be his best
chance to pick up a win, and keep his card.
Nick Watney - He's got another year of exemption left from his 2007
win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, so his current position at 118th on
the Money List isn't a huge issue for him; but a win (or very strong finish)
will get him over the $1 million mark in earnings for the third straight
season, and will let him now that he belongs on Tour once his exemption runs
out. Like everyone else on this list, Watney is here because he can
flat-out hit. At 301.2 yds/drive, he's 9th on Tour in Driving
Distance. The corollary to that, as you'd imagine, is that he's 129th in Driving
Accuracy, but again, that shouldn't matter much this week. He's also 30th
in Greens In Regulation, which will only help matters. The drawback (like
with Garrigus) is the putter (142nd in Putting Average, 154th in Putts Per
Round), but again, the greens aren't that tough, and it really shouldn't be as
big a factor as it normally is. He hasn't had much of a season since May,
but this will be a nice way to bookend it if he can scratch out a win here.
Sit
Davis Love III - He
jumps up and has his best finish of the year last week, and suddenly he's
"playing well" and is a threat to win this week. I'm just not
buying it. He's a little over $622,000 in winnings this season, which is
good for 133rd. I just don't see how he's going to get to 125th by the
end of the season. He's not going to get a medical exemption this year
either; so Love will be counting on sponsor's exemptions next season.
He's not going to win this week, or any other week this season. He's
still a long hitter, he's 16th in Driving Distance, but he's not better than
144th in any major category, and is simply not a threat anymore. Stay
away from Love this week, no matter what you hear.
Rocco Mediate - Let's face it, 2008 was Mediate's best season in a
long time. In fact, this is his best season in terms of earnings that
he's had in the last 10 years. However, Mediate is handicapped by one
thing, especially this week. He's 172nd in Driving Distance at 278.3
yds/drive. Unfortunately, in a field full of long hitters, someone who
hits this short on a course like this will actually drop shots to the field;
and dropping shots on a course like this won't net you a good finish;
especially when the odds of the winner being -20 or better is pretty
strong. So, this won't be Rocco's week, but he's been one of the great
feel-good stories of this season.
John Daly - He's still one of the longest hitters on Tour ... but you
know better, right?