Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the PGA Tour's Fall Series! The
big boys may be taking the rest of the season off, but it's not like you won't
find some talent in this field. Briny Baird, Dudley Hart, Carl Pettersson
and Heath Slocum are here, just to name a few. Davis Love III, David
Duval and Jesper Parnevik are here to try to keep their card; and that's the
same story with the countless young players in the field this week. The
winner's share this week is the last one of the season over $1 million, which
would be more than enough to get someone in that magical top-125. As far
as the course itself, it's a long (7,400+ yds) rolling course; very much like a
New England-style course; especially one in the mountains. Sheer distance
and elevation changes are going to be the name of the game this week. The
greens should pose little challenge; but the sheer distance of the course is
going to cause some problems; and scores will be moderated (I think) as a
result. So I'm thinking this week is going to favor some of the longer
hitters more than anything else; but I'm going to try to temper that with how
good the player is. The Yahoo! (and some other) golf season has
concluded, but dozens of others are continuing; so I'm going to do away with
the "group" listing, and just bring you the three best to start and
sit for the rest of the season.
Start
Carl Pettersson - I have to admit, I'm not feeling great about this
pick; but considering the depth of the field (read: lack of depth), I'd be
remiss if I didn't pick him as a start this week. He was in the Tour
Championship last week, and did win the Wyndham Championship right before the
playoffs began. He's playing better over the last two months or so; and
really should be a big force this week. My concern lies in his length off
the tee (or lack thereof). He's just 97th in Driving Distance; 286.9
yds/drive. He has been driving in the low 290s over that last two month
stretch I mentioned; which makes me feel a little better. He's 147th in
Driving Accuracy and 124th in Greens In Regulation. Neither of those are
very good either; although I'm not guessing it will be a big issue this week;
again, he's been better of late. His best friend will be his putter; he's
33rd in Putting Average and 41st in Putts Per Round. If he can get it to
the green like he has been of late; he's going to be a big factor.
Martin Laird - Laird had a mini-streak for three weeks, where he
finished T-4th at Tahoe, T-4th at the Wyndham and T-7th at The Barclays to get
himself all the way to the BMW Championship from nowheresville a couple of
weeks before. He's had three rough weeks since then; which doesn't
necessarily bode well. However, the week off (and the favorable course)
should help him out; and it's probably his best opportunity to solidify the
chances of retaining his card for next year. He's 30th in Driving
Distance; which is going to keep him ahead of the game. Some of your
better players in this field (Baird, Hart, Austin, etc.) are lighter hitters,
and at 7,400+ yds, they're at a distinct disadvantage; especially when you
consider two of the Par-5s are over 600yds. Laird should have a chance to
reach those; essentially giving him an extra shot to play with. He's
112th in Driving Accuracy; which isn't great, but it's also not too bad, and
he's 27th in Total Driving, which is one of the better numbers in the
field. He's 66th in GIR, which is really good. He's 31st in Putting
Average, which is more than good - and I can't help but think that if Laird
starts off fast, he's going to have a really good finish.
Robert Allenby - I'm jumping back aboard this train because of
numbers. That can be dangerous; but I think in this case, it's
warranted. Also, he wasn't won on Tour since 2001, so I can use the
"he's due" argument. He's missed just one cut all year, and
although he's only finishes out of the top-25 a couple of times since March,
he's not playing as well as he was during the early part of the summer.
That said, he's still playing better than much of the field, and has a really
good chance to win outright this week. He's 56th in Driving Distance,
90th in Driving Accuracy, 6th in GIR and 72nd in Putting Average. I'll
stack those numbers up against anyone in the field.
Sit
David Duval, Davis Love III, Jesper Parnevik - All three of these
players have been near or at the top of the PGA pecking order at one point in
their careers; but now they can't even make cuts. These three are
desperately trying to keep their cards; but they can't make cut's and we're
only going to see them on exemptions. You'll still see these three in the
PGATour.com picks section each week for ... I don't know why; sentimentality,
maybe? All I know is, these guys are absolute poison in terms of
fantasy. Their time has come and gone; and it's time for all of us to
move on.