This week in Norton, it will be a tough week on a tough course with a tough field to compete against. Sleepers are starting to become few and far between as the entire field gets more and more familiar; just because someone's not a favorite doesn't necessarily make him a sleeper. So this week, we're going to have to dig deep, and look for those who match what this course demands: Decent Length, Very Good Accuracy, Very Good Iron Play and Very Good Putting. Sounds easy enough, right? Well, unfortunately "by these numbers" players are tough to come by, so we might have to fudge a bit here and there. Just remember what sleepers are; picks who should only be picked if you're way behind and really need to make up a lot of ground. These shouldn't be considered fully-vested "winners" picks. Anyway, with all of the disclaimers and setup out of the way; let's get to the sleepers:
Carl Pettersson - A Group - Well, this is a bit of a stretch, but keeping in mind that he's finished in the top-10 five times in his last 11 events; even last week's T-48th (hey, Kenny Perry and Lee Janzen finished in a T-48th too) can't discount that he seems to be on a hot streak. His numbers are a little on the "tough to justify", but they're much better than they were at the start of the year; and considering he's not a Tour regular, and thus has a smaller sample size, it might not be that bad. Well, here are the numbers anyway. He's 113th in Driving Distance (at a pretty ok 286 yds/drive), 142nd in Driving Accuracy (not good), 108th in GIR (63%, again, not great here either), but he's 36th in Putting Average and 37th in Putts Per Round, which is very, very good; especially in this field. If he can get the ball down the fairway, and IN the fairway, he'll score really well at TPC-Boston. That's a tall order, but seeing Pettersson cash a very strong top-25 this week isn't really out of the question.
Angel Cabrera - B Group - I'll be honest, I don't have numbers to back up this pick (as you'll see in a bit), but he's the 2006 US Open Champion, and did enough to finish T-19th last week at The Barclay's. The truth is, the TPC-Boston is a U.S. Open level and quality course, and it's the kind of course that historically Cabrera does very, very well on. Here are Cabrera's numbers, and they're bad; but bear in mind he had an even smaller sample size than Pettersson had. He's 208th in Driving Accuracy, 167th in GIR, 197th in Putting Average, 184th in Putts Per Round, and 24th in Driving Distance. Those are mostly bad. They're almost all bad, actually, but take a look at what he did vs. the field last week: T-30th in Driving Accuracy, T-25th in Putts Per Round, T-30th in Putts Per GIR, T-29th in GIR and 15th in Driving Distance. In a final field of 72, those are all better than average numbers; and far superior to his numbers on the season. If he can play that well or better (especially with the putter), he'll cash well again.
Lee Janzen - C Group - This is a deep sleeper here, but as I mentioned in my feature this week, Janzen's done everything he's needed to do of late to continue advancing. He finished T-15th at the Wyndham Championship to get into the field on the number at 144. He finished T-48th last week to get to 119th when the cut is 120. Now, it will be a tall task against this field; it will take a top-25 to get into the top-70, and a top-25 this week will be difficult. Again, his numbers aren't great either. He's 121st in Driving Distance, 124th in Driving Accuracy, and 139th in GIR. He is at least 70th in Putting Average and 49th in Putts Per Round. I'm not making a numerical argument for Janzen; this is strictly him seeming to know exactly what it will take to survive and advance; and if he makes it this week, I'll be rooting hard for him to make the Tour Championship, of that you can be sure.