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PGA Weekly Sleepers: FedEx Cup Round 1 - The Barclays - Ridgewood Country Club - Paramus, NJ

We spent most of Start 'Em Sit 'Em yesterday talking about what the course was like, and what we should look for.  It's an exclusionary distance course, which means the shortest hitters in the field are going to be unable to compete.  Other than that, I don't see too many "make or break" stats this week.  The greens are going to be on the slow side (they measured 11.5 on the stimpmeter last week; and Paramus has had plenty of rain since then), so even putting shouldn't be much of a factor this week (although the bad putters will still be bad).  Another thing I think I'll use in determining sleepers this week will be the ability to play under pressure.  I think in most cases this will probably be a veteran player; but that part isn't hard and fast.  So, here they are, your sleepers for Week 1 of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Steve Stricker - A Group - Don't kill me, I know, he's the defending champ.  However, out of the A Group THIS week, I don't see a whole bunch of other options.  After a terrible stretch this season where he missed four straight cuts; he's now made five straight, including a top-10 at the British Open (T-7th).  His stats are skewed because of that bad stretch, and believe it or not they have improved quite a bit.  He's still a very good putter (78th in Putting Average and 36th in Putts Per Round).  His Greens in Regulation number (usually in the high-70s) sits at 108th, which isn't awesome; but shouldn't kill him that much.  His Driving Distance number (137th, 283.8) looks like he's going to be "excluded" on this course.  That is, unless, you go inside the numbers and check out his Driving Distance in his last nine tournaments; he's averaging closer to 292 yds which is not exclusionary at all.  Clearly he has to tighten up his game a bit; but he is playing better, and obviously this is a course he likes.  I wouldn't be surprised with a top-10 in this spot.

Justin Leonard - B Group - He's made 19 of 20 cuts, has 10 top-25s, and five top-10s.  By any other measure; that's a fantastic season, and Justin Leonard is back up to 27th in the OWGR for the first time since 2003.  He also qualified 8th for the FedEx Cup Playoffs.  Justin Leonard is going to be a factor, just as he has been all season.  He's starting highly enough that he doesn't HAVE to win any tournament; finishing top-5 or even top-10 would probably be enough.  He's 24th in Putting Average and 30th in Putts Per Round; one of the best on Tour and that will help this week.  He's 40th in Greens In Regulation; more than good enough.  He's 57th in Driving Accuracy, again, more than good enough.  11th in Sand Saves is awfully good too.  Now, I know what you're thinking, "What about his distance, doesn't he hit really short?"  Yes, his ranking is 177th (279.3); but like Stricker, of late he's hitting the ball much farther.  His last seven tournaments, he's hitting closer to 290, which should be just enough to make it work.

Steve Marino - C Group - I am BACK on the Marino train, mainly because he's in the middle of the pack (top-middle); and a top-25 will actually move him up in the standings (from 38th).  You already know about his stats; they're all solidly right there.  He's 57th in Driving Distance, 23rd in Greens In Regulation, 71st in Putting Average, 90th in Scrambling and 68th in Bounce Back.  Marino's going to be solid in the back half of the top-25; of that there is no doubt.  Now, should he somehow be higher on Saturday or Sunday (a possibility); I don't know that he's going to react well to the pressure of the top guys swimming around him.  But, he'll accumulate points, I'm sure of that.  The rest, well that's all up to Marino.  Does he want to be big-time, or is he content on the midcard?  Play in the Playoffs should tell you what you need to know.

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