As in any Major tournament, "sleepers" are tough to come
by. People in the tournament are either past Major winners, or earned
their way in, so they all "deserve" to be there. Therefore,
coming up with a true sleeper is difficult. It comes down to some basic
questions. How will the course affect the players? Whose game fits
this course the best? Who is playing well coming into the
tournament? Who has played well in the Majors this year? Who fares
better in Majors overall? Those five questions are a good jumping off
point. Then you can throw in fun stuff like hunches and gut
feelings. Of course, too many of your "experts" tend to jump
right to that last part, but you know better. Anyway, let's get to the
sleepers at The Open this week. I'll give you a couple of picks for the
U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee
tournament as well as addendums at the end.
Geoff Ogilvy - A Group - It's tough to consider Ogilvy much of a
sleeper, but when you consider the competition; I think it's a fair
assessment. I like this pick for a couple of reasons, not the least of
which is that he's a Major winner (2006 U.S. Open Champion at Winged
Foot). I also like that in his last eight tournaments, he's had five top-10s
and six top-25s, including three straight top-10 finishes in a row. So,
that means he's playing well of late, a good sign. In his last twelve
Major tournaments, he's finished nine times in the top-25, with six
top-10s. His last three performances at The Open were T-5th, T-16th and a
missed cut. You can almost (almost) discount last year's missed cut,
because that track record is awfully impressive. This course, at 7,180
yards (approximately) shouldn't eliminate much of the field from contention,
and especially not Ogilvy, who is 60th in Driving Distance at 290 yds/drive on
the dot. His only weakness is Driving Accuracy, where he's 130th on Tour;
but I think the Links-style course is going to be advantageous to those who
struggle to hit the fairway. The rough is no picnic by any means, but at
least recovery shots won't be blocked by trees. Watch Ogilvy this week;
I'll be shocked if he doesn't challenge.
Anthony Kim - B Group - In contrast to Ogilvy, Kim truly would be a
surprise winner this week. Not that he's not a hot player, by any
means. He's got two wins and two other podium finishes this year on Tour
and hasn't missed a cut since the first week of April. He has, what could
be considered improvement in Major (or Major-esque tournaments) this
year. He was T-42nd at Sawgrass, and T-26th at the U.S. Open; which are
both courses that I ultimately think will prove more difficult than Royal
Birkdale (unless the wind kicks up). Doing my usual due diligence and
checking out the old weather
forecast for the Royal Birkdale Area, it looks like the wind won't be a
huge factor this week. Toss in the fact that is should be cloudy, cool
and wet most of the weekend; this course should hold drives and approach
shots. I would expect some low scoring this week, and Kim should be one
of the biggest beneficiaries of this. His main weakness, 147th in Driving
Accuracy, should be masked by the favorable weather, and the rest of his game
(9th in Driving Accuracy, 45th in GIR, 20th in Putting Average and 21st in
Putts Per Round) is more than sufficient to make a run here. Potentially,
the pressure could cost him and he might fail to contend; but I think as a
sleeper, Kim is as good a choice as anyone.
Justin Leonard - First and most importantly, he's the 1997 Open
Champion, and has a relatively good track record at Major tournaments in
general. He's missed just one cut all year, and seems to be relatively
healthy after being ravaged by back injuries the last few years. He's one
of the best putters on Tour (15th in Putting Average and 51st in Putts Per
Round). His only true weakness is distance (165th in Driving Distance),
but I don't think a 7,200 yard course eliminates him. The Par-5s aren't
exceedingly long, and there aren't any real drivable Par-4s, so he shouldn't be
at much of a disadvantage. He's 34th in Driving Accuracy and 8th in GIR,
both stats being critical this week. If he stays out of the rough and pot
bunkers, he's going to score really low this week. Don't be shocked if
Leonard is in contention on Sunday.
U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee
Sleepers: Cameron Beckman, D.J. Trahan, Tommy Armour III